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<\/p>\n\u2018Realistic Business Forecasting\u2019 bridges the gap between the academic methodology of forecasting and the practical application of these techniques in any business. There are plenty of books which cover topics of business strategy, such as an assessment of political and legal influences on an industry (a PEST analysis) or an analysis of the market and competitors. Similarly, people wishing to find books on the topic of forecasting will find an abundance of books which go into detail on a wide array of techniques. What Adam felt was missing was a text which blended these two issues; for example, once a firm has determined that a country\u2019s economy is likely to weaken and its currency is expected to decline, how can this information be quantified and incorporated into a practical business strategy?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
In business, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis is not an academic exercise, it is a means to build on a company\u2019s strengths, relative to its competitors. It is conducted to eliminate (or at least mitigate) relative weaknesses and assess factors in the macro-environment which the firm can use to its advantage, or against which it can build defences. The missing link is how all these factors are related to forecasting and this book provides that link.<\/p>\n
A critical part of any project is whether it is economically viable, but too many organisations leave the forecasting element as an afterthought. Adam Simmons has combined his commercial and academic experience to overcome this problem.<\/p>\n
He has created a practical and accessible guide for any business large or small, in any sector, to help them build their strategies, in advance, based on \u2018Realistic Business Forecasting\u2019.<\/p>\n
Review Quotes
\nReview Quotes from Adam’s last book Business Planning in Transport<\/p>\n
“An excellent addition to the library of managers and students”<\/p>\n
“This book provides managers and students with a veritable toolkit for dealing with the issues posed in modern business planning.”<\/p>\n
“Adam brings his experience to bear having gained this initially with British Rail and London Transport and more recently with Network Rail and the UK Department for Transport. In addition he has advised on transport projects in five continents and held academic positions with several UK Universities.”<\/p>\n
“This book is a must read for any student of transport at degree or post graduate level.”<\/p>\n
Table of Contents
\nRealistic Business Forecasting<\/p>\n
Contents
\nPart 1: Introduction and Overview
\nPart 2: Essential Quantitative Techniques
\nPart 3: The Macro-environment
\nPart 4: Industry and Firm Specific Drivers
\nPart 5: Introduction to Forecasting Techniques
\nPart 6: Short-Term Forecasting
\nPart 7: Long-Term Forecasting
\nPart 8: After the Forecasts – What Next?<\/p>\n
1 Introduction
\n2 Acme Food Stores Plc
\n3 Are Forecasting Errors Inevitable?
\n4 Channel Tunnel\u2013 Case Study
\n5 Sampling
\n6 Analysing Historical Data
\n7 Probability & Contingency Planning
\n8 Queuing & Simulation
\n9 Simulation: Modelling Major Incidents
\n10 Working with Constraints
\n11 Benchmarking
\n12 Scenarios
\n13 Elasticities
\n14 Overview of Drivers Influencing Forecasting
\n15 Inflation & Exchange Rates
\n16 Quantifiable Macroeconomic Factors
\n17 Less Quantifiable Macroeconomic Factors
\n18 Industry Drivers
\n19 Internal Drivers
\n20 Market Positioning
\n21 Firm Structure & Control Mechanisms
\n22 Simple Regression
\n23 Multiple Regression
\n24 Dummy Variables
\n25 Regression \u2013 Miscellaneous Topics
\n26 Time Series \u2013 Introduction
\n27 Japan Air Traffic
\n28 Single Exponential Smoothing
\n29 Triple Exponential Smoothing
\n30 Autoregression
\n31 Acme Food Stores Plc \u2013 Time Series Model Comparison
\n32 Long Term Forecasting
\n33 Long Term Forecasts CTD \u2018Science\u2019
\n34 Long Term Forecasts CTD \u2018Art\u2019
\n35 Financial Forecasting
\n36 How Did It All Work Out?
\n37 General Index<\/p>\n
An extract from the Full Contents\u2019 list:
\n1 INTRODUCTION Why this book? \/ Why Bother with Forecasting? \/ Short-Term Long-term Forecasting \/ Focus on Food \/ The Missing Link \/ The Modelling Process \/ Objectives of a Model \/ Acceptability
\n2 ACME FOOD STORES PLC Introduction \/ The Food Store Sector in the UK \/ Overall Growth \/ Market Shares \/ Stores and Revenue per Outlet \/ Financial Performance in Detail \/ Employees \/ Additional Issues for Acme \/ In Store Operations \u2013 Self Scan \/ Online Sales \/ Suppliers
\n3 ARE FORECASTING ERRORS INEVITABLE? \/ Chapter Overview \/ Systemic Errors \/ Technical Errors \/ Robustness of Forecasts \/ Ranking Factors by Robustness \/ Labour Costs \/ Labour Costs per Unit Produced \/ Raw Materials \/ Sector Demand \/ Company Demand \/ Company Revenue
\n4 CHANNEL TUNNEL\u2013 CASE STUDY \/ Overview \/ Market Volume \/ Market Shares \/ Forecasts \/ General Observations \/ Market Size \/ Tunnel Market Share \/ Closing Remarks
\n5 SAMPLING \/ Why Sampling is Important \/ Mean and Standard Deviation \/ Normalisation \/ Sampling, Standard Error and T Distribution \/ Introducing Sampling \/ Sample Standard Deviation \/ Standard Error of the Mean (SEM) \/ Degrees of Freedom (DoF) \/ T-Distribution \/ Degree of confidence \/ Confidence Interval \/ German Stores \/ UK Stores \/ How Could These Results Change? \/ Sample Quality \/ Sampling: Endnotes \/ Annex on Standard Deviation and SEM \/ Introduction \/ The Problem \/ Method 1- Simulation \/ Method 2 \u2013 Direct Calculation \/ Back to the Owner\u2019s Problem<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
by Adam Simmons
\nRealistic Business Forecasting\u2019 bridges the gap between the academic methodology of forecasting and the practical application of these techniques in any business.Adam Simmons has created a practical and accessible guide for any business large or small, in any sector, to help them build their strategies, in advance, based on \u2018Realistic Business Forecasting\u2019.<\/p>\n
You can also buy the full eBook for \u00a326.99 here\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":148501,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"product_brand":[],"product_cat":[26,549,25,551,27],"product_tag":[401,201,402,537,538,405,408,257,399,541,409,540,404,539],"class_list":{"0":"post-148498","1":"product","2":"type-product","3":"status-publish","4":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"product_author-adam-simmons","7":"product_cat-books","8":"product_cat-business","9":"product_cat-home","10":"product_cat-illustrated","11":"product_cat-non-fiction","12":"product_tag-adam-simmons","13":"product_tag-business","14":"product_tag-degree","15":"product_tag-forecast","16":"product_tag-forecasting","17":"product_tag-indexed","18":"product_tag-level-text-book","19":"product_tag-logistics","20":"product_tag-planning","21":"product_tag-practical","22":"product_tag-professional","23":"product_tag-realistic","24":"product_tag-reference","25":"product_tag-strategy","26":"product_shipping_class-standard1","27":"pa_numberofpages-536","28":"pa_rrp-42-50","30":"first","31":"instock","32":"taxable","33":"shipping-taxable","34":"purchasable","35":"product-type-simple","36":"add-to-wishlist-after_add_to_cart"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product\/148498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/product"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=148498"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/148501"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=148498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"product_brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product_brand?post=148498"},{"taxonomy":"product_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product_cat?post=148498"},{"taxonomy":"product_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uppbooks.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product_tag?post=148498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}