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£42.50

Realistic Business Forecasting

by Adam Simmons

Realistic Business Forecasting’ bridges the gap between the academic methodology of forecasting and the practical application of these techniques in any business.Adam Simmons has created a practical and accessible guide for any business large or small, in any sector, to help them build their strategies, in advance, based on ‘Realistic Business Forecasting’.

You can also buy the full eBook for £26.99 here 

28 in stock

Meet The Author

"Adam Simmons MBA MSc BSc - With thirty years in the Public Transport Industry, Adam Simmons MBA MSc BSc has worked on major passenger, freight and infrastructure projects across 5 continents. As a lecturer, tutor and practitioner in the field, Adam’s writing is filled with practical information drawn from experience. Up until 1988, Adam Simmons MBA MSc BSc worked in two British transport companies, British Rail and London Transport. Since then, he was involved in several franchising competitions for rail services in Great Britain. He has also worked on the other side of the fence, particularly in auditing revenue and performance models for the Department of Transport and Network Rail. On the international front, Adam worked on major passenger, freight and infrastructure projects on all five continents. He was involved in transport and corridor studies throughout Africa as well as the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and Europe and he participated in studies concerning the political and structural aspects of transport infrastructure, demand forecasting and economic/ financial analysis (including cost-benefit analyses). In addition, he has undertaken European aid projects on ex-post evaluation and institutional restructuring. In addition to several other projects, Adam is currently employed by Warwick University as a Teaching Associate in Modelling for Management and by Birmingham University, in a similar role, for Service Operations Management and by the Institute of Railway Operators (UK) as a tutor in Railway Economics and Business Organisation. He has also worked part-time as a lecturer at Westminster University Business School and as a freelance lecturer elsewhere in the London area on a wide array of subjects including quantitative analysis for marketing, services marketing, business strategy and financial management. His books include:- Realistic Business Forecasting and Business Planning in Transport. Both are University Text books and are considered essential reference books for any business wanting to consolidate their business and expand "

‘Realistic Business Forecasting’ bridges the gap between the academic methodology of forecasting and the practical application of these techniques in any business. There are plenty of books which cover topics of business strategy, such as an assessment of political and legal influences on an industry (a PEST analysis) or an analysis of the market and competitors. Similarly, people wishing to find books on the topic of forecasting will find an abundance of books which go into detail on a wide array of techniques. What Adam felt was missing was a text which blended these two issues; for example, once a firm has determined that a country’s economy is likely to weaken and its currency is expected to decline, how can this information be quantified and incorporated into a practical business strategy?

In business, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis is not an academic exercise, it is a means to build on a company’s strengths, relative to its competitors. It is conducted to eliminate (or at least mitigate) relative weaknesses and assess factors in the macro-environment which the firm can use to its advantage, or against which it can build defences. The missing link is how all these factors are related to forecasting and this book provides that link.

A critical part of any project is whether it is economically viable, but too many organisations leave the forecasting element as an afterthought. Adam Simmons has combined his commercial and academic experience to overcome this problem.

He has created a practical and accessible guide for any business large or small, in any sector, to help them build their strategies, in advance, based on ‘Realistic Business Forecasting’.

Review Quotes
Review Quotes from Adam’s last book Business Planning in Transport

“An excellent addition to the library of managers and students”

“This book provides managers and students with a veritable toolkit for dealing with the issues posed in modern business planning.”

“Adam brings his experience to bear having gained this initially with British Rail and London Transport and more recently with Network Rail and the UK Department for Transport. In addition he has advised on transport projects in five continents and held academic positions with several UK Universities.”

“This book is a must read for any student of transport at degree or post graduate level.”

Table of Contents
Realistic Business Forecasting

Contents
Part 1: Introduction and Overview
Part 2: Essential Quantitative Techniques
Part 3: The Macro-environment
Part 4: Industry and Firm Specific Drivers
Part 5: Introduction to Forecasting Techniques
Part 6: Short-Term Forecasting
Part 7: Long-Term Forecasting
Part 8: After the Forecasts – What Next?

1 Introduction
2 Acme Food Stores Plc
3 Are Forecasting Errors Inevitable?
4 Channel Tunnel– Case Study
5 Sampling
6 Analysing Historical Data
7 Probability & Contingency Planning
8 Queuing & Simulation
9 Simulation: Modelling Major Incidents
10 Working with Constraints
11 Benchmarking
12 Scenarios
13 Elasticities
14 Overview of Drivers Influencing Forecasting
15 Inflation & Exchange Rates
16 Quantifiable Macroeconomic Factors
17 Less Quantifiable Macroeconomic Factors
18 Industry Drivers
19 Internal Drivers
20 Market Positioning
21 Firm Structure & Control Mechanisms
22 Simple Regression
23 Multiple Regression
24 Dummy Variables
25 Regression – Miscellaneous Topics
26 Time Series – Introduction
27 Japan Air Traffic
28 Single Exponential Smoothing
29 Triple Exponential Smoothing
30 Autoregression
31 Acme Food Stores Plc – Time Series Model Comparison
32 Long Term Forecasting
33 Long Term Forecasts CTD ‘Science’
34 Long Term Forecasts CTD ‘Art’
35 Financial Forecasting
36 How Did It All Work Out?
37 General Index

An extract from the Full Contents’ list:
1 INTRODUCTION Why this book? / Why Bother with Forecasting? / Short-Term Long-term Forecasting / Focus on Food / The Missing Link / The Modelling Process / Objectives of a Model / Acceptability
2 ACME FOOD STORES PLC Introduction / The Food Store Sector in the UK / Overall Growth / Market Shares / Stores and Revenue per Outlet / Financial Performance in Detail / Employees / Additional Issues for Acme / In Store Operations – Self Scan / Online Sales / Suppliers
3 ARE FORECASTING ERRORS INEVITABLE? / Chapter Overview / Systemic Errors / Technical Errors / Robustness of Forecasts / Ranking Factors by Robustness / Labour Costs / Labour Costs per Unit Produced / Raw Materials / Sector Demand / Company Demand / Company Revenue
4 CHANNEL TUNNEL– CASE STUDY / Overview / Market Volume / Market Shares / Forecasts / General Observations / Market Size / Tunnel Market Share / Closing Remarks
5 SAMPLING / Why Sampling is Important / Mean and Standard Deviation / Normalisation / Sampling, Standard Error and T Distribution / Introducing Sampling / Sample Standard Deviation / Standard Error of the Mean (SEM) / Degrees of Freedom (DoF) / T-Distribution / Degree of confidence / Confidence Interval / German Stores / UK Stores / How Could These Results Change? / Sample Quality / Sampling: Endnotes / Annex on Standard Deviation and SEM / Introduction / The Problem / Method 1- Simulation / Method 2 – Direct Calculation / Back to the Owner’s Problem

Weight 0.75 kg
Dimensions 25.4 × 14 × 20.3 cm
RRP

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